Anyone can screenshot a win. TailMyPicks rebuilds the whole record.

What is in the index right now

These are counts of what the last publish actually loaded, not estimates. Every one of them is a number the engine wrote down while it was writing the rows.

Resolved markets read whole

412,080

Wallets rebuilt

2,603,135

Qualified picks scored

27,069,422

Category records

3,938,178

Spread over 55 Categories in 16 groups — the heaviest being NBA (3,285,898 picks), Fifa International (2,777,299 picks) and Tennis (1,972,232 picks), with 52 more.

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

How a number gets here

1. The market is read back to its first trade

   Polymarket serves a few thousand trades at a time and refuses to page far back, so the engine reads a chunk, notes the oldest trade it saw and asks again for everything before that moment — until it reaches the market’s very first trade or reports that it could not.

2. It is believed, or it is not stored

   Two checks before anything is written: did the read reach the first trade, and does our own total agree with the figure Polymarket publishes for that market? A market that fails either is refused — recorded, with the bounds it was judged under, and not scored. A market is saved whole or not at all.

3. Trades collapse into one call per market

   Buying both sides of a market is not a forecast, so opposing buys cancel share for share and what is left is the one outcome the wallet is judged to have picked, at the average price it paid to get there. A fully hedged market produces no call at all.

4. The call is graded on the outcome, and the price is charged against it

   A pick counts as right if the outcome it backed won, whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — selling early neither earns a win nor hides a loss. Then the entry price is subtracted: a market bought at 85¢ was already expected to win, so winning it proves almost nothing.

Everything on this site is built from resolved markets only. The engine structurally cannot see an open one, so it cannot accidentally grade a wallet on a bet that has not finished.

The Tail Score, in one paragraph

A wallet’s Edge is how far it beats the prices it paid, per pick. The Tail Score is that Edge shrunk toward zero, so a four-from-four run cannot outrank a long record — and it is what a board is ranked by.

It is shown as a mark out of 100 on a fixed scale, where 50 means no edge at all: exactly as good as paying the market price. The scale never moves, so a score screenshotted today still means what it meant when it was taken, and it is published alongside the data it grades rather than kept in this website.

It is always a score inside one Category. A wallet that reads a sport well has told you nothing about how it trades elections, so TailMyPicks never claims an overall edge and never publishes one.

Why you can argue with this and win

• The losers are published too. Nearly half of the wallets this site can find score below 50 in their own best Category. Every page states how many of a wallet’s Categories are below 50 at the same weight as how many are above, and orders them by how much evidence is behind them rather than by how well they read.
• Every row can be opened. A Category’s line on a wallet discloses the individual picks it was computed from — all of them, not a sample — so counting them reproduces the claim.
• The win count never appears without the price. A high win rate bought at 90¢ is not an edge, and the column beside it says so in numbers.
• Nothing is computed while you look at it. The site reads a published copy of the engine’s results and never calls Polymarket while rendering a page. Every page tells you how old that copy is.
• A wallet with nothing recent falls out of a ranking without losing its record. A seasonal specialist comes back on its own when its sport restarts, and stays reachable at its own address the whole time.

What it is not: advice. TailMyPicks measures what a wallet did on markets that have already resolved. It does not predict what it will do next, and it is not affiliated with Polymarket.

What is free, and what is not

Any wallet’s record is public and free, forever. That is the argument that settles a debate, and putting it behind an account would delete the product rather than protect it. You can check an address, read one resolved market as a post-mortem of who backed what, and open a single call at its own link — all without an account.

What is paid for is discovery: not judging a wallet somebody already named, but finding out which wallets are worth following, Category by Category, and following them.

What it costs

Accounts are not open yet. Everything described as free above is live on this site today and needs no account at all; the price and the trial are stated here so that nothing about them is a surprise on the day they are.

The obvious questions