Sports Betting Guides

Bet Types

• Moneyline: Pick the winner. We publish ML edges when our implied probability exceeds market price.
• Spread: Handicap applied to even the matchup. We flag value when our model projects a different fair line.
• Totals (Over/Under): Combined points. We simulate possessions/pace to derive fair totals.
• Props: Player/team outcomes. We project usage, efficiency, matchup context.

How Our Picks Are Built

• Ingest historical performance, injuries, travel, rest, and matchup tendencies.
• Convert our model output into implied probabilities and fair odds.
• Compare to current market lines to identify positive Expected Value (EV).
• Publish a pick only when edge meets sport-specific thresholds.

Bankroll & Unit Sizing

We advocate flat staking (1u) or Kelly-fractional sizing based on edge. Avoid chasing losses and keep unit size consistent.