Sports Betting Guides
Core concepts, bet types, and how we translate data into picks.
Bet Types
- Moneyline: Pick the winner. We publish ML edges when our implied probability exceeds market price.
- Spread: Handicap applied to even the matchup. We flag value when our model projects a different fair line.
- Totals (Over/Under): Combined points. We simulate possessions/pace to derive fair totals.
- Props: Player/team outcomes. We project usage, efficiency, matchup context.
How Our Picks Are Built
- Ingest historical performance, injuries, travel, rest, and matchup tendencies.
- Convert our model output into implied probabilities and fair odds.
- Compare to current market lines to identify positive Expected Value (EV).
- Publish a pick only when edge meets sport-specific thresholds.
Bankroll & Unit Sizing
We advocate flat staking (1u) or Kelly-fractional sizing based on edge. Avoid chasing losses and keep unit size consistent.